Evaluation of Optimum Asphalt Yield of a Process

Abstract

This study is on evaluation of optimum asphalt yield of a process. The data used is a secondary data collected from the records department of Consolidated Contractors Company Nigeria Ltd (C.C.C) between years 2008-2010. A fitted trend equation was obtained which enables prediction of the production yield at any point in time. The  trend line estimated from a 12 point centered moving average showed a sharp fall in the production yield of asphalt and a slight rise in the month of August for the three years period. The seasonal analysis showed from the result of the seasonal indices that the month of July has the least production of asphalt and this can be attributed to the presence of heavy rain fall which primarily affects the production of asphalt. Also, regression analysis was used to develop two models that expresses the nature of relationship between the production yield and factors such as Temperature, Humidity, Rainfall, Efficiency(environmental factors), Stone-dust/sand mixture, chippings of various sizes C5_, C10, and Bitumen(material factors). Finally, it was established from analysis that the best regression model for predicting the production yield of asphalt is the material factor fitted equation.

Key words: Trend, Seasonal index, Environmental factors, Time series