Projection of Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Energy Consumption and Transportation in Malaysia: A Time Series Approach

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most complex challenges threatening our planet. Since the beginning of the industrial era, mankind has been emitting large amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. This study empirically investigates the carbon dioxide emissions (CO₂) of electricity consumption and energy use in Malaysia using time series data for the period of 1970-2008. There are five major sources that contribute to the total CO₂ emissions in Malaysia: gaseous fuel consumption, liquid fuel consumption, solid fuel consumption, electricity heat production and transportation. In this study, a comprehensive modeling tool, consisting of ARIMA models in time series, was utilized to project the total CO₂ emissions from year 2009 to year 2020. It was projected that without any mitigation measures taken by the country, 500 mega tons of CO₂ will be released in 2020, a 43.3% increase compared to the amount of CO₂ emitted in 2005.  In addition, this study also reviews the mitigation steps taken in order to reduce CO₂ emissions contributed by electricity generation and transportation. The projection of CO₂ emission and its associated impact is hoped to provide an important message to consumers on the significance of reducing future CO₂ emissions in Malaysia.

Keywords: Carbon dioxide emissions, Projection, Time series