The Agricultural Implications of Climate Change Factors and their Projected Future Values on Rural Households in Bayelsa State, Nigeria

Abstract

This study assessed the trend and projected future values of climate change factors in Bayelsa state. The main objective was to determine the trend of climate change factors and the specific objective was to determine the projected future values of climate change factors in the state. Annual mean time series data of climate change factors from 1971 to December 2009 were collected from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) for the study. Multistage sampling techniques were used in the random selection of states, local government, communities and rural farming households. Data were analyzed through the use of descriptive statistics to describe the socio-economic characteristics of the rural farming households in the state. Line graph was used to determine the trend of the climate change factors (temperature, and rainfall) and Growth model was used to predict the future values of climate change factors (temperature, and rainfall) in Bayelsa state. The mean annual income of the rural farming households was N62, 678 ($404) revealing a low annual income of $1.1 a day which is less than the global poverty line of less than $2 a day. The projected future values of rainfall and temperature are increasing in the state. Also the coefficient of variability of the projected future value of rainfall was 2.27%, indicates that if temperature changes (increase) by 1%, rainfall will decrease by 2.27% in the state. The implication of this is that optimum temperature requirement of 25^oC to 30^oC of crops such as yam and cassava mostly grown in the state considering the present temperature situation of 31.21 ^oC has being exceeded. The agricultural implication of this trend is low agricultural yield and hunger. This is a threat to food security in the state. The study therefore recommends that meteorological station units should be established in the rural farming area especially in Bayelsa state where accessibility is extremely difficult. This will make available meteorological data (information) to the reach of the poor rural farming households for the attainment of food security status.

Keywords: Climate Change Factors, Rural Household, Bayelsa State, Nigeria