Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Services Value Changes and Its Implication for Sustainability Development Goals

Abstract

This study quantified the effect of future land use/ land cover changes on ecosystem service values under different scenarios in Mekelle city region for the year 2030. The study utilized land use/land cover changes data of the year 2019 and predicted LULC changes for the year 2030. Identification of the driving forces, was the most important step in predicting the future LULC and was performed using the cellular automata models in CLUDMondo which is a future land use simulation model by coupling human and the natural effects. Scenarios were made under business as usual, implementation of PES schemes and spatial planning. In business-as-usual scenario, it was observed that ecosystem services value will decline by 2030 from the base year of 2019, whereas under spatial planning scenario, the ecosystem service value will increase by 5.2%. Such results can serve as useful information in policy formulation in developing land use options, which help enhance ecosystem service value in future. Therefore, special attention should be given to the rehabilitation of ecosystems, the protection of the remaining natural vegetation and water bodies. Overall, these results provide useful inputs to planners to adopt eco-friendly policies to achieve sustainable development goals.

Keywords: Scenario, ecosystem service, value, land use/land change, sustainable development goals

DOI: 10.7176/JRDM/75-04

Publication date:May 31^st 2021