A Moving Average Analysis of the Age Distribution and the Pattern of Road Traffic Fatalities in Ghana, From 2001 - 2010

Abstract

Road traffic fatalities (RTF) in Ghana have adverse effect on the dependency ratio and economic growth in theformal sector of the economy. To analyse the pattern of road traffic deaths in Ghana, fatalities for road trafficaccidents by age groups from 2001 – 2010 were obtained. Using published road traffic accident statistics fromthe National Road Safety Commission, the pattern of RTF with respect to age was obtained, using movingaverage analysis. The pattern of the series data displays 8 distinct yearly cycles over a 10-year period, with theunderlying trend showing a steady increase overall, as well as in each particular age group.Based entirely on the trend of the past data, the values of the number of RTFs are projected for each of the 8 agegroups. The number of road traffic fatalities in Ghana is predicted to rise from 1 987 in the year 2010 to 3 677 inthe year 2030, an increase of about 85%.Key Words: Age, Fatality, Trend and Forecast