Rice Production Forecasting in Bangladesh: An Application Of Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model

Abstract

The study was undertaken to fit the best Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model that could be used to forecast the rice productions of Bangladesh such as in Aus, Boro, Aman season covering the whole country. This data for the present study is available in the Bangladesh Agricultural Ministry’s websites www.moa.gov.bd. The best selected ARIMA model for Aus productions is ARIMA (2,1,2), for Aman it is ARIMA (2,1,2) and, for Boro it is ARIMA (1,1,3). In this study, it was tried to make a comparison between the original series and forecasted series which also shows the same manner indicating fitted model are statistically well behaved to forecast rice productions in Bangladesh. It is found from the analysis that ARIMA model gives good forecasting for short term analysis.

KEYWORDS: Rice production, ARIMA, Forecasting, Bangladesh.