Application of Markov Chain Model in Studying progression Of Secondary School Students by Sex During The Free Secondary Education: A Case Study of Kisii Central District

Abstract

Enrollment forecasting is an essential element in budgeting, resource allocation, and the overall planning for the growth of education sector. This paper demonstrates the use of Markov chain techniques in studying progression of secondary school students from the time of entry/enrollment in form one to graduation after the expected four years in Kenya’s secondary school level of education. The target population included all the secondary school students in Kisii Central District. The model was used to determine the district’s secondary school completion/dropout rate, retention rate and the expected duration of schooling by sex. It was established that completion rates for male students was higher than that of female students and dropout rates for female students was higher than that of male students. In the long run, it was established that the completion and dropout rates were the absorbing rates. Female students had lower expectation of schooling compared to male students in Kisii Central District. The model is only appropriate in making short period projections.

Keywords: Absorbing States, Absorbing Markov Chain, Transition Rates, Dropout Rates, Completion Rates, Fundamental Matrix