Application of the Statistical Analysis for Prediction of the Jordanian GDP by using ARIMA Time Series and Holt's Linear Trend Models for the period (2003-2013)

Abstract

This study aimed to apply of the statistical analysis for prediction of the Jordanian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at (market prices), by using ARIMA Time Series and Holt's Linear Trend models for the period (2003-2013), also to compare between the forecasting values of (Box-Jenkins) methodical ARIMA model, and the Holt's linear trend Exponential Smoothing. To achieve the study objectives, the study is mainly based on the secondary data related to GDP selected from the annual reports of the Jordanian Economics for the period (2003-2013). The study findings a number of results, including: 1. The Jordanian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will see a rise in the nearest future. 2. There were a statistically significant differences at the significance level (? = 0.05), between the forecasting values of the Jordanian Gross Domestic Product (GDP), by using (Box-Jenkins) methodical ARIMA model for time series and the Holt's linear trend Exponential Smoothing model, in favor of the ARIMA model for time series. Upon the foregoing results, the study reached to a number of conclusions, recommendations, and suggestions. Keywords: (Box-Jenkins) methodical, ARIMA model, Exponential Smoothing, Holt's linear trend, Jordanian GDP.