Mathematical Modeling of River Blindness Disease with Demography Using Euler Method

Abstract

The study focused on the mathematical modelling of river blindness (Onchocerciasis) infectious disease using SIR model with demography and Euler method as the analytical procedure in Excel programming. Onchocerciasis is discussed, assumptions are made and basic deterministic features are studied. The interaction between the susceptibility and infection decline drastically to 0.01%, in the 90 days simulated diseases about 52% of the population are susceptible to the disease and 50% on average infection rate is recorded within the 14 dyas before the infection starts decreasing from 55% and dies out. The recovery rate is 0.37(37%) and seemingly constant.

Keywords: Euler method, Simulation, Infectious disease, SIR, Demography