A stochastic Approach for Intergenerational Socioprofessional Mobility in France: A Markovian Analysis Applied to Data from “Formation et Qualification Professionnelle” Surveys

Abstract

In France, studies on social mobility are based on data from Training and Professional Qualification (Formation et Qualification Professionnelle, FQP, in French) surveys conducted over several decades by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies. While previous researches limited their statistical analyses of data from these surveys at descriptive level, ours introduces a stochastic model that helps to better apprehend the evolution of intergenerational mobility and social structure over time in France. Thus, using data from six (1953, 1970, 1977, 1985, 1993 and 2003) FQP surveys, our paper analyses,  with a regular Markov chain, the evolution of intergenerational mobility and social structure in France during five decades in adopting the two following approaches:
a) The Individual Process: Analysis of intergenerational transition probabilities and the matrices of the mean first passage times in each state of the system;

b) The Collective Process: Examining the condition of reversibility of different matrices of exchange and comparison of permanent vectors (fixed or limits) obtained from the intergenerational transition matrices.

The outcomes show a significant change (with the decline of lower-class) in the social structure in this country over the time, while the social immobility remains high in the upper-class.

Key words: Regular Markov chains, social structure, transition probabilities, destiny, origin, permanent vectors