Modeling Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) of Local Governments in Nigeria

Abstract

This paper considers the Time Series Modeling of Internally Generated Revenue of Ikot Ekpene Local Government Area of Akwa Ibom State in Nigeria. Data for this work are monthly internally generated revenue collected from the Budget, Planning, Research and Statistics (BPRS) department of the Local Government from 1998 to 2012. Box and Jenkins method of time series analysis is used to analyse the series. From the analysis, ARIMA (2, 1, 2) is identified as appropriate model for the series and Theil Coefficient indicates that the model is adequate for a good forecast.Keywords: Time series model, internally generated revenue, Theil coefficient, forecast, Local Government Revenue.