A Semi-Parametric Estimation of Time to Exit from Service of Teachers in Kenya

Abstract

There has been increased enrolment in both primary and secondary schools in the country since the government implemented the free primary education in 2003 and now the subsidized secondary education. This means a higher demand for qualified teachers, hence the need to retain those already in the service. In order to achieve this, there is need to investigate the factors associated with teachers’ exit from service. This study presents the semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard model to determine a combination of potential explanatory variables that are associated with survival time in service for teachers employed by the Teachers Service Commission. The study used data from the Teachers Service Commission of 278,063 teachers working in public schools and post primary institutions in Kenya up to October 2014 and 28,403 who have left the Teachers Service Commission. Results show that male teachers have a higher hazard ratio (1.23) compared to their female counterparts hence indicating that male teachers are more likely to leave teaching, older teachers aged 35 years and above reduces the risk to termination by 96.9% relative to those aged 35 years and below. Teachers working in North Eastern parts of the country have lower survival rates hence are more likely to exit than those in other provinces.
Keywords: The Survival function, Cox Proportional Hazard model, Teachers’ Survival Time in Service, Time to exit