Comparative Analysis of Three Time Series Trend Models on Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria

Abstract

This work fitted three time series trend models namely, linear trend model, quadratic trend model and exponential trend model on Gross Domestic Product of Nigeria using an annual data from 1982 to 2012. It was found out that the exponential trend model had the least MAPE and fitted the data appropriately. The exponential trend model was used to make a five year for forecast of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product, which showed that the country’s Gross Domestic Product will be on the rise within the next five years.

Keywords: Model, Forecast, Time Series and Linear Trend