Effect of Currency Fluctuations on the Economic Growth Potential of Nigeria

Abstract

The exchange rate is one of the most important determinants of a country's relative level of economic health. This study examines the effect of currency fluctuations on the economic growth potential of Nigeria using the World Bank Development Indicators data from 1970-2012. The study through the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF)/ unit root test found that the variables used in the model are integrated of the order one while export and interest rate are integrated of the order zero. Using the Johansen co integration tests shows the presence of long run relationship between variables. The Error Correction Model (ECM) results suggest that exchange rate has a negative significant impact on GDP in the short run and long run. The study therefore recommends that the competitiveness and stability of the exchange rate should be given due consideration as this will increase economic growth through increased investment.

Keywords: Exchange rate, Economic growth, ADF, ECM, Nigeria