Predicting Banking Crisis in Six Asian Countries

Abstract

This study aims to create predictive models of banking crises in six Asian countries, India and Japan for developed countries and 4 developing countries Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Philippines. Predictive models developed using 4 groups of variables, macroeconomic, internal bank, institutional and global factors, as a whole consists of 15 explanatory variables. This research observation period beginning in 1999-2012 and analyzed using logit analysis. The results showed that there are nine variables that can be used as a predictor of banking crises in six Asian countries that is the real GDP growth, inflation, bank asset quality, liquidity, financial liberalization, central bank independence, world oil prices, U.S. economic growth, and the rate of inflation U.S.

Keywords: Banking Crisis, Macroeconomic, Internal banking, Institutional, Global Factor, Asia