Forecasting Major Fruit Crops Productions in Bangladesh using Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model

Abstract

Bangladesh has a large agrarian base country where 77% of total population is living in the rural areas and 90 % of the rural population directly related with agriculture. Banana, Guava, Papaya, Jackfruit, Pineapple, Mango etc. are the major fruits crops in Bangladesh. The main objective of this study is to fit the Box-Jenkins Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average, that is, ARIMA Model to forecast the different types of major fruits productions in Bangladesh. From the study, it is found that ARIMA(2,1,3), ARIMA(3,1,2) and ARIMA(1,1,2) are the best model to forecast the Mango, Banana and Guava productions respectively in Bangladesh. From the comparison between the original series and forecasted series which are also shown the same manner indicating fitted model are statistically well behaved to forecast fruits productions in Bangladesh.

Keywords: Fruits Productions, Forecasting, ARIMA Model, Bangladesh.