Time Series Analysis of Demand for Domestic Air Travel in Nigeria

Abstract

This work fitted three time series models namely, AR (1) model, MA (1) model and ARMA (1,0,1) model on demand for domestic air travel in Nigeria using quarterly data from 2003 to 2012. It was found out that the ARMA (1,0,1) model had the least MSE and fitted the data appropriately. The ARMA (1,0,1) model was used to make a five year quarterly forecast for demand for domestic air travel in Nigeria, which showed that the country’s demand for domestic air travel will be on the rise within the next five years.

Keywords: Model, Forecast, Time Series and Transportation