The Dynamics of Poverty and Income Distribution: Is The Nigerian Middle Class Statistically Or Economically Growing?

Abstract

The study attempted to characterize, define and ascertain the dynamics of the Nigerian middle class using the General Household Survey (GHS) of 1996, Nigeria Living Standard Survey (NLSS) of 2004 and the 2009/2010 Harmonized Nigeria Living Standard Survey (HNLSS). Cluster analyses and MLogit model were used to estimate the size and determinants of the middle class respectively. The study among other things shows that middle class is a dynamic and relative concept whose meaning is derived from the economic conditions of a given period. Thus, given the trends in welfare metrics, the present sets of middle class in Nigeria are worse-off relative to the periods 2004 and 1996. Although there is statistical middle class, economically they are living a lie because the macroeconomic fundamentals and other metrics of consumer welfare are not supportive of their existence and sustenance.

Keywords: Nigeria, poverty and income distribution, middle class, cluster algorithm, multinomial logit