Analysis of Price Forecasting and Spatial Co-Integration of Banana in Bangladesh

Abstract

The study was conducted for understanding the present situation of marketing system of banana in different hilly  regions of Bangladesh.The objectives of the study were to estimate costs and margins, to test market integration, and price forecasting of Banana. Secondary data was used for this study. So the farmers of Bangladesh who are still suffering from indecision about the future prices of banana, should come forward to fruits farming as the analysis provides a positive insights for fruits cultivation. Engle Granger co-integration test was used to examine the market integration. Analysis of market integration shows that banana market in Bangladesh was well integrated except hilly region of Bangladesh it’s due to lack of well transportation and communication system in hilly region. The study identified some problems related to transportation facilities, lack of agro-processing industries, low prices and natural calamities aspects and suggested some measures for solving these problems.

Key words: ARIMA model, Engle Granger co-integration, Price forecasting, Market integration, Banana.