Industrial Structure and Employment Structure Evolution and Forecast in Viet Nam

Abstract

The interaction mechanism between industrial structure and employment structure has great importance in the development of any economy. But it always needs a constant vigilance to adjust and evolve which promotes the economic development of a country. This study tries to find out the optimization correlation between industrial structure and employment structure in Vietnam for the period of 1995-2014. This study has found that labor is moving gradually from low efficiency production section to high efficiency production section. This paper uses the vector auto-regression model (VAR) to forecast industrial structure and employment structure change trend in Vietnam for 2015-2020. The forecasted results show that industrial structure trend is moving towards higher progression, eventually transforming to "321" pattern. However, the change in employment structure lags behind changes in the industrial structure as labor structure is showing a "132" pattern.

Keywords: Industrial structure, Employment structure, vector auto-regression, Vietnam