Empirical Determinants of Agricultural Exports in Nigeria

Abstract

The main objective of the paper has been to empirically investigate the determinants of agricultural exports in Nigeria. The research covered the period between 1980 and 2015. The Ordinary Least Squares technique was used to analyze the data. The cointegration and ECM models as well as the granger causality tests were adopted. The ADF result indicates that all the variables are I(1) and the Johansen cointegration test shows a long run equilibrium relationship between agricultural exports and its determinants. The result shows that the immediate past value of agricultural exports has a significant and positive impact on the current level of agricultural exports. The result shows that the one period lagged value of the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate has a significant and positive impact on the level of agricultural exports in Nigeria. The result shows that agricultural output has a significant and positive impact on agricultural exports in Nigeria. The result revealed that oil export has an insignificant and positive impact on the level of agricultural exports in Nigeria. The openness of the Nigerian economy to the outside World through international trade has a significant and positive impact on the level of agricultural exports in Nigeria. The ECM shows a satisfactory speed of adjustment between the short run and long run period. The result recommends amongst others a devaluation of the Nigerian currency and judicious use of oil exports to diversify the agricultural exports in Nigeria.

Keywords: Agricultural exports; Nominal Effective Exchange Rate; agriculture output; cointegration  ,