Israel's Scenarios After the Downing of Its F16 Aircraft in Syria the Formation of an International Coalition to Lure Iran and Hezbollah to Face Direct in Syria, Southern Lebanon and Gaza

Abstract

This is not the first time that the Israeli air force has lost one of its warplanes But today the surprise was a kind of strategic surprises why? Today, a modified F16 warplane, known as the "Suva" (Storm), is being dropped from the F-161 series. Israel has about 300 fighters, which entered active duty in 2004 and have high electronic capabilities. Which were targeted by SAM missiles five relatively old compared to the Israeli air defense system. And here lies the secret of strategic surprise? How can an old Syrian air defense system shoot down an Israeli warplane with high electronic capabilities!

Returning to the archives of the Israeli air force, we recall the biggest air battle between the Syrian air force and the Israeli air force

The battle of the Beqaa Valley after the Israeli offensive in June 1982, one of the largest air battles in history between the Syrian air force and the Israeli air force

Which destroyed in this battle about 90 Syrian aircraft without destroying any Israeli aircraft. This battle witnessed the destruction of most Syrian air defense batteries (15 out of 19) Sam 3, Sam 6 and Sam 7, and the Israeli operation lasted only two hours. Where the Syrian forces failed to destroy any Israeli aircraft because it became old and unable to keep up with the Israeli air force superior to the technical and intelligence and operations, which evolved more than it was in the (1973 war), where these batteries proved effective in that war. Syrian forces from most areas of Lebanon.

Thus, the downing of the technically superior Israeli aircraft is a warning signal for the Israeli air force to restore its military calculations by looking for new options to confront the advanced air defense system not in Syria, but in the Lebanese Hezbollah and Iran, because neutralizing the Israeli air force is tantamount to ending the myth. The IDF is superior to its air force

It is necessary to look for alternatives not only to confront the advanced air defense systems of Syria, Hezbollah and Iran, but also to prepare for suicide bombers

Because what happened today to bring down the technically advanced Israeli plane was not an emergency event related to the loss of a military aircraft, which is possible in any military confrontation, but the real value of what happened today militarily lies in the fact that Israel has to consolidate its military accounts and prepare for what is far from facing a sophisticated defense system, Israel should ask itself what if the Lebanese Hezbollah in the next confrontation would launch 100 or 500 or even 1,000 rockets into Israel, how would Israel's air defense systems deal with them?

What happened today is a message to Israeli military experts and advisers that they have to rethink their calculations because the rules of the game have changed today. Israel lost a warplane in exchange for a UAV. Was the loss identical or not?

Israel has only one way to pressure the United States to form an international coalition whose main purpose is to draw up joint American-Israeli plans to draw Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah into direct confrontation

According to military experts and political analysts, Israel will not go to war against Hezbollah, Iran and Hamas alone.

In other words, Israel will not take part in any future war against Hezbollah and oppose Hamas by launching missile strikes on command and control positions, military bases of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Lebanese Hezbollah bases in Syria, or even qualitative strikes on command centers. Control and nuclear reactors within Iran.

Unless the following three conditions are met

First, the United States must be at the head of the international coalition

Second, NATO must take part in these military strikes

Thirdly, the Arabs, especially the Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, must cover the expenses of this war financially, politically and informally

"Russia and the next Lebanon war: how can Moscow benefit from the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah?" Dmitry ADAMSKY, in an article in Foreign Affairs,

That Russia has an interest in a limited war between Israel and Iran to consolidate its presence as a key player in the Middle East that ends the extension of Iranian influence in Syria

Keywords: Israel's scenarios after the downing of its aircraft in Syria formation of an international coalition to lure Iran and Hezbollah direct confrontation