AN EXAMINATION OF THE VARIABILITY OF DEFERRED ACTION FOR CHILDHOOD ARRIVALS (DACA) POLICY EFFECT IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA LABOR-FORCE

Abstract

It has been underscored by recent studies that ending DACA would place a severe economic strain on businesses around the country. In 2017, the United States of America’s Citizenship and Immigration Services reported that a total of nearly 800,000 immigrants have obtained the status of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (or DACA), thereby rapidly increasing or adding significantly to the total labor force in the United States of America. Therefore, the primary objective of this study is to examine and predict the variability of DACA policy effects on the United States of America labor-force. The study utilized secondary sources of immigration data on DACA immigrants between 2012 and 2015, coupled with labor-force data from 1995 to 2015. The study adopted the application of time series models from the perspective of the autocorrelation function of a time series data such as ACF, PACF, and ARIMA-models to enable a better understanding of DACA accepted data to policymakers. Furthermore, the best ARIMA-model was selected for forecasting based on each models’ parameter estimates, coupled with the diagnostics test of residuals as well as their various AICs and BICs. The data was coded and analyzed with the help of R -statistical software. As part of the results, the study found that there is a systematic change in the time plot of ACF and PACF (i.e. trend component) in the accepted DACA data.  Also after the introduction of the first differencing procedure, the U.S. employment DACA data was observed to be approximately stable, hence stationary. Based, on the appropriateness (checking and diagnostic testing) of ARIMA-model, the study forecasted that the accepted DACA will continue to vary by rising and falling seasonally in the next 60 months due to the policy repeal. The study has the conclusion that, for the continuous growth and survival of the labor force of the United States of America, there is the need for continuity and expansion of the DACA policy.

Keywords: Labor-Force, DACA, ARIMA, Autocorrelation, Immigration, and Employment