Economic Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Arable Crop Production in Nigeria

Abstract

The study was designed to evaluate the effects of climate change on arable crops’ productivity, in Nigeria. It estimated the influence of climate factors on farm productivity (net revenue variability) in the country. The study relied mainly on institutional (NIMET) and primary data for its analysis. Data were obtained using a set of structured questionnaire administered in a multi-stage, stratified random sampling manner on arable crop farmers producing maize, rice, cassava, yam and cowpeas. Sixty (60) farmers each were randomly selected from 5 states in each of the five agro-climatic zones in Nigeria giving a total sample size of 300.  Data collected were analyzed using Ricardian model. It was found that rainfall and temperature variations, planting materials costs, household size and labour cost exerted statistically significant effects on level of gross margins.  Their elasticities were 1.199 (p <0.01), 8.219 (p <0.01), 0.108 (p < 0.05), 0.097(p <0.01) and 0.124 (p <0.05) respectively.

Keywords: Climate variability, climate change risks, arable crop productivity, Ricardian Model