Exploring Agri-Food Import Dependency of Burundi: A Gravity Model Approach

Abstract

The upward movement of agricultural and food imports has been a central issue in Burundi, since it hampers the growth of agricultural sector and poses a major disincentive to farmers’ ability to produce more and cope with the risks associated with food production.  This paper aims to find critical factors that determine the surge of agri-food imports observed during post civil war (2000-2010). A gravity model was estimated from the data collected during the period of 2000-2010. The random fixed-effects model indicated that Burundi’s GDP, her trade partners’ populations, exchange rate, distance, being under the same colony and belonging to a regional trading bloc such as EAC and COMESA are the main factors determining food imports. The choice of trade instruments to use may seek to facilitate trade by reducing unnecessary tariff and non-tariff barriers but in a reciprocal agreement and dispensation of bilateral and multilateral protocols.

Keywords: Gravity model, Agri-food, Imports, random fixed effects and Burundi