Forecasting the Quantity of Shrimp and Dry Fish Export from Bangladesh

Abstract

This study presents forecasting quantity of shrimp and dry fish export from Bangladesh for five years by using deterministic models that could be used to make efficient forecast of shrimp and dry fishes. These models are very much quick, inexpensive and capable of describing time series data adequately in many situations. In this study, nine different deterministic time series models have been considered. They are all fitted to data of shrimp & dry fish exports from Bangladesh. Among the deterministic type models, the cubic model is best for shrimp export and S-shaped model is more applicable for dry fish export. From this study, it has been found that the increase of shrimp export would be 4.93% annually or 24.67% over coming five years. The total amount would increase from 57017.56 thousand tones to 71081.6 thousand tones during 2010/11 to 2015/16. It has been observed that the quantity of dry fish export would increase by 0.46% annually. The total amount would increase by 2.30% i.e., from 355.30 thousand tones to 363.30 thousand tones during 2010/11 to 2015/16.

Keywords: Forecast, Shrimp export, Dry fish export.