Determinants of the Growth Cycle of The Gambia’s Economy using ARDL and Forecasting Techniques

Abstract

This paper intends to show the determinants of the forecasting of the growth cycle of the Gambia’s economy using a data from 1934- 2017.  The impact of the variables under observation towards the growth of the Gambia’s economy was analyzed. I will use forecasting techniques together with Auto Regression Distributed Lags to find the impacts of the variable. Tourism, exports and taxes play a very crucial role towards growth of the Gambia’s economy. The growth cycle will be forecasted with a variable values on the GDP series at a VECR of 0.9 point, unrestricted variable of 0.7 and a Bayesian variable of an open interval of the CLT at 0.5-0.9. I will also make use of both the dynamic and static forecasting methods to reach the statistically significant conclusion.

Keywords: Growth Cycle, Gross Domestic Products, Taxes, Investment, Net Exports and Tourism

JEL Classification: B22, C10, C12, C13, C51, C52, C53, C55, C80, F43, Y10