Interest Rate and Inflation Nexus: ARDL Bound Test Approach

Abstract

The paperestimates the impact of interest rate on inflation in Nigeria. The study makes used of Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) on time series Data, for the period 1970-2016. The data set on inflation, money supply, interest rate, GDP per capita and exchange rate were tested for stationary using ADF, PP and KPS tests and established stationarity at I (1) for all the variables. ARDL testresults reveal that interest rate is inflationary in both the short-run and long-run as it positively and significantly influencing inflation in the two periods which is in conformity with the arguments of the fiscal policy supporters but contradict the arguments of the monetary policy supporters. The findings of the study imply that interest rate in Nigeria is inflationary. Meaning that increase in the rate of interest rate will lead to an increase inflation rate. Therefore, the research study conclude that interest rates should be adjusted with caution, and also implies that fiscal policy measure will be very effective in converting inflation in the country.

Keywords:ARDL Bound Test, Interest Rate, Inflation, Exchange Rate, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy.

DOI: 10.7176/JESD/10-20-07

Publication date:October 31^st 2019