The Dynamic Impacts of Oil Price Shocks on Turkey’s Economic Growth

Abstract

This study mainly aims at investigating the dynamic effects of a structural crude oil volatility shock on real economic growth for Turkish economy. To estimate the volatility, exponential GARCH(p,q) model was used and to estimate the dynamic structural relationships between oil price volatility and economic growth, structural VAR model was used. Empirical results suggest that the long-run response of accumulated economic growth to a structural shock in real crude oil price volatility is  points. This means that quarterly economic growth decreases by  points and this finding is of strong statistical significance.

Keywords: EGARCH, SVAR, oil price volatility