Predictive Modelling of Land Use Dynamics in Enugu, Nigeria: Evidence from Multi-temporal Remote Sensing Data

Abstract

This study examines land use dynamics in Enugu, Nigeria, utilizing multi-temporal remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) data to analyze urban expansion from 2003 to 2023. With urban growth outpacing regulatory controls, Enugu exemplifies the challenges of rapid, unmanaged urbanization in mid-sized cities within developing regions. Employing the Urban Expansion Intensity Index (UEII) and Shannon’s Entropy, the study reveals a deceleration in expansion intensity, coupled with a persistent pattern of uncontrolled spatial dispersion. Findings indicate a 49.91% increase in urban area from 2003 to 2013, slowing to 19.69% from 2013 to 2023, suggesting limited regulatory impact on peripheral expansion. Classification accuracy metrics validate the reliability of the data, with Kappa values consistently showing high agreement. The results highlight critical implications for urban planning, emphasizing the need for stronger regulatory frameworks and sustainable land use practices. The study advocates for the integration of GIS-based monitoring into urban governance to mitigate the impacts of urban sprawl and ensure environmental resilience. The findings contribute to theoretical urban growth models by showcasing the influence of socio-economic drivers and regulatory inadequacies on land use transitions. This research informs policymakers and urban planners, offering practical tools and policy recommendations for fostering sustainable development in rapidly urbanizing regions like Enugu.

Keywords: Land Use Dynamics, Multi-Temporal Analysis, Sustainable Development, Urban Expansion

DOI: 10.7176/JESD/16-1-04

Publication date: January 30th 2025