Environmental Health Situation: A Case Study of Childhood Diseases in Southwest Nigeria

Abstract

Childhood diseases in the Southwest region of Nigeria remain a pressing public health concern. An in-depth analysis of disease prevalence, trends, and forecasting is essential for informed interventions. This study draws upon a dataset encompassing a 32-year period, from 1990 to 2022, detailing the prevalence of various childhood diseases. Data collection and curation processes ensured comprehensive coverage of the region's health landscape. Employing a combination of descriptive statistics and time series modeling, we examined disease prevalence, temporal patterns, and stationarity transformations. ARIMA models, augmented Dickey-Fuller tests, and stationarity differencing techniques were instrumental in the analysis. The analysis revealed persistent prevalence of Diarrhoea, fluctuating patterns in Malaria and Kidney disease, stability in Whooping cough and Measles, and fluctuations in Skin disease. These temporal patterns were corroborated by ARIMA models, uncovering intricate relationships and predicting future trends. Notably, targeted interventions, adaptable strategies, vigilance in vaccination programs, and environmental health initiatives emerged as essential strategies for the Southwest region. The study offers a comprehensive understanding of childhood disease dynamics, with implications for public health planning and interventions.

KEYWORDS: Childhood Disease, Time Series Modeling, ARIMA Models, Whooping Cough, Malaria and Kidney Disease

DOI: 10.7176/JHMN/117-03

Publication date: September 30th 2024