Simulation Model in Markovian Decision Theory in Allocation Optimization in Nigerian River Basin Development

Abstract

The work applied Simulation Modeling in Markovian Decision Theory, adapts infinite models of exhaustive enumeration method for the solution of allocation optimization in multi-purpose and multi-objective Nigerian River Basin Development Authorities, RBDAs’ planning and management problems by logically apportioning levels of development to various purposes while optimizing eight objectives in stages. This type of management problem is a decision problem and cannot be handled by linear programming which can only optimize one objective at a time. Methodology involves methods and experiments, data were collected from the River Basin Development Authorities, Ministries and Parastatals.  Markov chain was used to assess solution. The result of the experiments shows policy 10, worst conflict condition calls for application of maintenance whenever the River Basin Engineering Development is in state 8 or very poor which interprets that development should be logically apportioned by the planning and management engineer as follows: Irrigated Agriculture-N3.86b, Water Supply-N8.82b, Hydropower-N13.42b, Flood Control-N17.52b, Drainages-N23.16b, Navigation-N25.58b, Recreation-N45.84b, Erosion Control-N61.84b. While E¹⁰ represents expected yearly benefit: when the River Basin Engineering Development is apportioned as above stated from the limited available fund of the Federal Government Budget of N 200billon, at least a (revenue) benefit of N 1.108Trillion can be achieved under the worst condition of conflict objectives. This work also advises a maintenance programme for the River Basin  in accordance with the result of experiments because the Basin should operate a minimum of 8years and a maximum of 21 year for full capacity utilization of assets.

Keywords: Simulation, allocation, optimization, Markov chain, River Basin Development

DOI: 10.7176/JRDM/53-05

Publication date:March 31^st 2019