A Model Simulation of Temperature in Ilorin, Nigeria

Abstract

Long time series of daily metrological data that are needed in various applications are not always available or appropriate for use at many locations. The temperature simulation model generated for the period of year 2000, 2001 and 2002 was evaluated. Its validity was tested on the monthly mean temperature for the year 2007 and 2008. Observed values and predicted values for the monthly mean temperature were tested graphically for the three years. Various statistical techniques such as descriptive statistics and correlation coefficient were employed to analyze the data. The mean and standard deviation for the observed and predicted values for the years under consideration were calculated and compared. The different in standard error between the observed value and predicted values for the monthly mean temperature is ± 0.01 and the correlation coefficient of 0.98 was obtained. This shows that the model can predict future monthly mean temperature in Ilorin with high accuracy.

Keywords: Temperature, simulation model, correlation coefficient, statistical techniques