The Coattail Effect in Elections: Assessing the Impact of Incumbent President’s Performances on their Vice President’s Electoral Outcomes

Abstract

The coattail effect, a phenomenon where an incumbent president’s performance influences the electoral success of their vice president, is a critical yet underexplored dynamic in political science. This study examines the impact of incumbent presidents’ governance on the electoral outcomes of their vice presidents, focusing on key factors such as economic management, public perception, policy implementation, and political stability. Employing a qualitative thematic and content analysis of voter interviews on electoral trends across multiple case studies and timelines, comparing instances where vice presidents succeeded and failed in their bids for the presidency in both the US and Ghana. The study is anchored in the political contexts of both developed and developing democracies, providing insights into the global relevance of the coattail effect. Findings suggest that the incumbent president’s perceived effectiveness significantly shapes public trust in vice-presidential candidates, with economic performance and crisis management emerging as pivotal determinants. Additionally, the research reveals that the coattail effect is moderated by factors such as partisan loyalty, campaign strategy, and external socio-economic conditions. This study contributes to the broader discourse on electoral behaviour, emphasizing the interplay between executive performance and succession politics while offering practical implications for political strategists and policymakers.

Keywords: Coattail Effect, Vice President, President, Performance, Election Outcome.

DOI: 10.7176/PPAR/14-3-09

Publication date: November 30^th 2024