Is CAPM a Good Predictor of Stock Return In The Nigerian Petroleum Marketing Stocks?

Abstract

This research is on testing the predictive power of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) as enunciated by Sharpe (1964) in the determination of the required rates of return of Nigerian petroleum marketing sector stocks that coincides with the actual rates of return. As it were, there is no clear cut understanding on the belief with particular reference to Nigerian petroleum marketing sector stocks. In the light of the above assertion, the objective of this study is to find out the required rate of return of Nigerian petroleum marketing sector stocks from 2000-2012 and compare them with the actual rates of return in the corresponding periods to indentify the valuation status of the stocks. Being an empirical study, analytical research design was adopted. The data used were secondary data, which were collected from the financial statements of the firms, The Nigerian Stock Exchange publications, and Central banks of Nigeria publications. The findings show that the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) as enunciated by Sharpe (1964) did not give any appropriate forecast of the returns from the petroleum marketing sector stocks throughout the thirteen-year period of study. The CAPM made twenty-seven under-valuations and seventy-four overvaluations to make a total of one hundred and one misappropriations in the thirteen years period of study in the petroleum marketing sector. Therefore, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is not a good predictor of stock return in the petroleum marketing sector of the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

Keywords: historical equity market risk premium, historical equity beta, required rate of return to equity, actual market return, actual stock return.