Uganda’s Comparative Agricultural Export Performance: A Shift-Share Analysis Approach.

Abstract

The paper sought out to establish the comparative export performance of Uganda’s main agricultural exports.The paper adopted a Shift Share Analysis (SSA) methodology, where Uganda’s agricultural trade wasdecomposed into four components (i.e. Global component, Geographical component, Product Compositioncomponent and the Performance component). The study focused on the top agricultural exports that contributean average of 35 percent of the nations export earnings, thus Coffee, Refined Sugar, Tobacco, Black tea, Palmoil and Vegetable fats &oils. These products were studied at the 6-digit HS level. The findings revealed thatalthough Uganda gained market share for its main agricultural exports, such growth was marginal, and that muchof the agricultural export earnings were dominated by one agricultural commodity. The study also revealed thatin the BRICs trading Bloc, much of the agricultural exports were destined for India and the Russian federation,with less destined to high growth markets like China.

Key words: Comparative Export Performance, Shift-Share Analysis, Agricultural Exports & Uganda