Dynamic modeling of rice stock in Bali Province, Indonesia

Abstract

The aim of this study is to discover rice stock design in Bali Province from production and consumption point of view, as well as overview of current and future progress.The approach used in this study was simulation model with PowerSim software.  Results of the study showed that dynamic modeling of rice stock in Bali Province consisted of six submodels: (1) population submodel; (2) income submodel; (3) production submodel; (4) gross regional domestic product submodel; (5) land submodel; and (6) consumption and rice balance sheet submodel. Relationship between submodels was depicted in a form of causative diagram. Causative relationship (causal diagram) showed that there was positive feedback. Results of model simulation showed that dynamic modeling of rice stock successfully explained annual dynamic behavior in every submodel. With accurate initial data input, this model can be used as control of system or anticipation to changes of policies related to rice stock in Bali Province. Model simulation with combined scenario, such as intensification, minimalizing rice consumption, or mantaining timeless rice field soil, is needed to overcome the threat of food crisis in Bali Province in the future.

Keywords: dynamic system, rice stock, Powersim