An Econometrics Analysis of the Determinants of Exchange Rate in Nigeria (1980 - 2016)

Abstract

The paper investigates the determinants of exchange rate in Nigeria using times series data ranging from 1980 to 2016 and employing the Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) to separate the long-run determinants of exchange rate from its short-run determinants. The result from the dynamic model reveals that changes in domestic price level, interest rate differentials, trade openness, government purchases of tradable and non-tradable goods and capital inflow are the major long-run determinants of exchange rate in Nigeria while changes in the domestic price level, interest rate differentials and capital inflow are the major short-run determinants of exchange rate in Nigeria. The study recommended the actions of the monetary authorities towards the maintenance of relative low and stable price level, interest rate capable of attracting foreign investors and the design and implementation of trade policies which tend to increase the inflow of capital from abroad.

Keywords: Exchange rate, Determinants, Nigeria, VECM