Climatic Effects on Rice Crop Productions in Bangladesh Using Multiple Regression Model and Measuring Production Efficiency Due to Climates Using Stochastic Frontier Model

Abstract

The main objective of the study is to develop the best Multiple Regression Model for measuring the significance of climatic effects on rice crop production in Bangladesh and measuring the production efficiency due to climates by using Cobb-Douglas Stochastic Frontier Model. To perform this study, amount of land used corresponding to a year’s production is an important variable which is sometimes used as a regressor variable and sometimes as weights to fit a Weighted Least Square Regression model. From the study, it is found that the Multiple R-squared values of Aus, Aman and Boro crop production are 0.9694, 0.9481 and 0.9544 respectively which are implied that these models can explain the most of the variability by the regressor variables, that is, these model are very good model. From the model validation test, it is obvious that these models are valid linear models. From the Stochastic Frontier model, Mean Efficiency of Aus, Aman and Boro production model are 0.8966353, 0.9159081 and 0.8540012 respectively. These results are indicated that there are huge opportunity to increase production by increasing technology.

Keywords: Climatic Effects, Rice Crop, Multiple Regression Model and Stochastic Frontier Model