Forecasting the Impact of Information and Communication Technology on Gross Domestic Product in Iran

Abstract

ICT has been considered as one of the factors that has affected productivity growth in the literature on economic growth for less than two decades. The ICT capital conveys the features of knowledge capital, so it can influence productivity growth both through capital deepening and its spillover effects. There have been many studies in the literature on the effect of ICT on GDP; however, the effect of ICT on GDP growth in the international context is less known. This study examines the relationship between ICT spillovers and GDP growth using a time series data method for Iran during 1980-2008.The result of this comparison showed that using a system approach can significantly increase the prediction accuracy. Finally, using the selected patterns, the impact of ICT on GDP for the period 2009 to 2020 is predicted. And result indicated that the impact of ICT on GDP will be increase to 2% in 2020.

Keyword: Information and communication technology, gross Domestic Production, time series model, VAR