Farmer’s Attitude towards Disease Outbreak – Reactionary or Precautionary: A Case of Livestock Farmers in the Grootfontein Region of Namibia

Abstract

Farmer’s attitude towards disease outbreak was investigated with the aim of determining whether they can be classified as being reactionary or precautionary. They are more reactionary than precautionary if the level of mortality triggers more rapid positive reaction than the level of vaccine and vice versa. Using an aggregate clinical veterinary record from 2009 to 2015, the farmers’ response to diseases were classified as “poor”, “fair” and “good” and an ordered logit outcome model was fit. The result shows that the threat of mortality and the level of vaccine do not increase the likelihood of reporting on time. Farmers who vaccinated their livestock are less likely to report disease incidence on time compared to those who did not vaccinate. This is because their decision is influenced by the level of precaution they have previously embarked on. Consequently, they tend to embark on a wait-and-see attitude hoping the livestock will recover. On average, there is 28.74% probability that farmers’ classified as “poor” will report clinical cases within 15 to 90 days. Similarly, farmers in the category classified as “fair” and “good” have 17.96% and 53.29% probabilities of reporting fairly and promptly respectively. The result shows that for a unit increase in mortality and the level of the vaccine, it is less likely that farmers’ will report disease incidence within 1-5 days of onset. A more conspicuous presence of the veterinarian and extension services in the study area is recommended to facilitate training and reduced transaction cost faced by livestock farmers. Policy intervention is needed to reduce transaction cost and the stigma attached to farm quarantine and forced closures.

Keywords: Veterinary, ordered logit, reactionary, precautionary, mortality.