Granger Causality between Private Domestic Savings and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Toda-Yamamoto Approach

Abstract

The study investigated the causality between private domestic savings and economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1981-2014. Specifically, the study examines whether private domestic savings have positive impact on economic growth; and as well investigate if there is existence (or not) of significant causality between private domestic savings and economic growth in Nigeria. Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model and Toda-Yamamoto approach to Granger causality test were utilized for the analysis. The variables such as total private savings (TPS), government expenditure (GEX), financial deepening (FD) and real GDP were used in the study. Stationarity test was conducted by applying the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) stationarity test and the results revealed that all the variables were non-stationary at level, and however, became stationary after first and second differencing. The VAR model results showed that total private savings (TPS) has positive impact on real GDP. Furthermore, the results of the Toda-Yamamoto to Granger causality test revealed that significant causality exist between TPS and RGDP, with causality running from RGDP to TPS. Therefore, the study recommends that government should adopt those macroeconomic policies that tend to promote economic growth in order to achieve increased savings, investment and higher employment. Similarly, the study recommends that government should expand its expenditure level on real sector of the economy and as well encourage financial sector to enable them operate effectively and efficiently in order to finance investment and other macroeconomic policies that have the capacity to facilitates economic growth and savings rate in the economy.

Keywords: Nigeria, Domestic Savings, Economic Growth, Toda-Yamamoto