The Syrian Conflict and Its Effect on the Real Local Production Growth and Unemployment in Jordan

Abstract

The study aims at identifying the Syrian conflict, and its effect on the Jordanian real local production growth. It also aims at identifying the influence of the Syrian refugee crisis on both the Jordan labor market, and unemployment. The study makes an effort at clarifying the state and the challenges of the Jordan market as a result of the migration of the Syrian workers. To achieve the purpose of this study, it follows the methodology that represents the information source and the total numbers of the local production, growth and unemployment. The Okun Law that clarifies the relation between the growth in the real local production and unemployment has been applied.

The study has achieved that the effect of the Syrian crisis was as the following:

1-     It entirely affects the local production growth by reducing the whole numbers of production.

2-     It generally affects the unemployment proportion as a result of reducing the national indicators.

3-     The number of male Syrian refugees who affected the Jordan market was larger than female number.

The study has come up with some important recommendations like finding developmental plans compatible with the Syrian conflict, encouraging the national employment, and triggering the legal framework in confronting the illegal employment in the light of growth stability in the local production at the level of 2.5%.

Key words: The Syrian conflict, the real local production, unemployment, Okun law