An Econometric Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change on Arable Crop Production in Botswana from 1980-2008

Abstract

Climate variability and change have been implicated to have had significant impacts on global and regional food production particularly the common stable food crops performance. However, the extent and nature of these impacts still remain are uncertain. In this study, records of crop production (maize and sorghum), climatic variables and non-climatic variables were used to carry out a comprehensive study of the effects of climate change on arable farming in Botswana. It estimates the effect of random year-to-year variation in weather on agricultural output using a 28-years district-level panel data. Crops differed markedly in their responses to the climate variables. Maize production performed badly compared to sorghum which proved to be drought resistant and performed very well under the climate environment of Botswana.  The results further showed that the inclusion of area planted is very important in this analysis. When considering area planted as an exogenous explanatory variable, we found a monotonic positive relationship between the production of maize and sorghum with area planted, indicating that economies of scale are dominant throughout the plot size distribution. In general, the analysis indicated that increasing temperature and decreasing rainfalls are both damaging to Botswana’s agriculture. These results suggest that climate change is likely to impose significant costs on the Botswana economy unless farmers can quickly recognize and adapt to increasing temperatures. Such rapid adaptation may be less plausible in a developing country, where access to information and capital is limited. Even though the analysis did not incorporate the carbon fertilization effect or the role of technology and change in prices for the future, significant information for policy making can be extracted. By filling these gaps, more information for decision making can be generated.

Keywords: climate change, Botswana, arable farming, panel data