Determinants of Sustainable Development in Kenya

Abstract

This study investigated the determinants of sustainable development in Kenya using annual data for Kenya for the period of 1991 to 2014. Adjusted net savings rate (ANSR) was used as a proxy sustainable development. The study used the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) for the analysis and the bounds test for cointegration to test whether a long run relationship exists between the study variables - household consumption per capita, unemployment rate, resource productivity, energy efficiency, real gross domestic product per capita and terms of trade. The main result from the study was that a long run relationship exists between the variables. Secondly, the estimated coefficients of household consumption per capita negatively impacts sustainable development in the long run while unemployment rate and energy efficiency both negatively influence sustainable development in the short run. Resource productivity, real gross domestic product per capita and terms of trade are insignificant in determining sustainable development. The results suggest that developing the economy while stimulating savings and promoting a contractionary fiscal policy on public deficits will promote sustainable development.

Keywords: sustainable development, adjustable net savings rate, ARDL