Demographic Transition and Private Sector Pension System in Ivory Coast: A Cointegration and Error Correction Model Analysis

Abstract

This study analyses the impact of demographic transition on private sector pension expenditure in Ivory Coast. Based on data from the World Development Indicators (WDI) and the National Social Security Fund (CNPS), over the period 1986 to 2016, we empirically show that the dependency ratio, the effect of participation in retirement pensions, the generosity of retirement pensions and life expectancy contribute to the increase in the pension expenditure of CNPS. The study recommends that public authorities continue the reforms undertaken since 2012 to ensure the payment of retirement pensions to private sector employees. It also suggests the establishment of structures and institutions to promote the private sector in order to reduce unemployment.

Keywords: Ivory Coast, demography, mortality, fertility, demographic transition, demographic dividend, demographic dependency ratio, economic dependency ratio, population policies