Determinants of Output Growth in Africa’s Non-Oil Producing Countries (ANOPCs)

Abstract

This study examined the determinants of output growth in the 14 selected non-oil producing countries in Africa, using annual time series data spanning from 1980 to 2016 sourced from the World Bank, World Development Indicator (WDI) and IMF International Financial Statistics (IFS). Error-correction based panel cointegration test was employed to test for the panel cointegration between output growth and some selected macro-economic variables. Results revealed that there is a long-term relationship between output growth and the selected macroeconomic variables; that the responses of output growth to the shocks from world oil price are positive and significant in some of the countries which were able to explore alternative sources of energy; that the responses of output growth to the shocks from Federal Fund Rate (FFR) are significant in all the selected countries, among others. Based on the findings, it is recommended that over reliance on oil can be reduced by diversifying into non-oil sources of energy such as natural gas and renewable sources of electricity such as hydro, geothermal, solar and wind. The study also recommends that stable exchange rate policy should be adopted across all African non-oil producing countries as this will go a long way in creating a predictable climate for investment, enhance more proceeds from exports and appreciate domestic currency.

Keywords: : Crude oil, Monetary Policy, Output Growth, Error-Correction Based Panel Cointegration Test and African non-oil producing countries(ANOPCs)

DOI: 10.7176/JESD/11-8-15

Publication date: April 30^th 2020