Nigeria Economic Performance and Bank Recapitalization Policy: The Role of Bank Branch and Deposit Trends

Abstract

Given series of reforms in the banking sub sector in Nigeria, with the 2004 recapitalization policy in focus, the paper examine whether the was any significant differences in both bank deposit and new office growth and its correlation with changes in some macroeconomic indicators namely: per capita GDP, Unemployment rate, interest rate, loan to small business enterprise and population 5-year before and 5-year after bank recapitalization in 2005. Data on the selected variables were obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and National Bureau of Statistic (NBS) Annual abstract of statistics. Percentage changes and trend analysis was employed in analyzing the data obtained. The result reveals that, all the variables – change in per capita GDP, loans to small enterprise, population and unfortunately unemployment and interest rate appear to be highly correlated with the high average percentage change in bank branch and deposit during 5-year post bank consolidation policy. A sharp fall in bank branch and deposit trends in 2008 was also accompanied by greatest falls in per capita GDP and loans to small enterprise, and highest rise in unemployment. In general, bank recapitalization policy led to stronger economic performance in Nigeria with 2008 financial crisis as a breaker of progress and gains of bank recapitalization policy.

Key word: Economic performance, Bank Branch, deposits, Recapitalization, Nigeria