Public Policy Study on Spatial and Modeling of Risk Factors for The Incidence of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Kupang City

Abstract

Background : The results of the tracking of pulmonary tuberculosis cases by the Perdhaki Foundation in 3 districts / cities in mainland Timor found 165 cases in Kupang City, 90 cases in Kupang Regency and 94 cases in TTS Regency with a total of 349 cases. Risk factors for pulmonary tuberculosis in Kupang City include behavioural factors and the home environment. The purpose of this study was to conduct a policy study that includes spatial pattern analysis and risk factor models for the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Kupang city.

Methods : This research was conducted in Kupang City, in August-October 2019, with the type of research is Quantitative research with case control study design. The sample of this study was a saturated sample of 132 people consisting of 66 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis and 66 controls of neighbouring family members. The independent variables in this study were individual risk factors (behaviour, characteristics, BMI and history of contact with people with pulmonary tuberculosis) and home environmental factors (ventilation, occupancy density, humidity, temperature and room conditions and sunlight) and the dependent variable was the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis. This study used questionnaires for observation and interviews in the form of the Avenza Maps application on android. Spatial analysis methods Nearest neighbor index and Geoda Application (Local Moran's Test With EB Rate) and analysed Chi-Square and multiple Logistic Regression.

Results : The results showed the Nearest neighbor index value = 0.57. Spatial Pattern of the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis cases based on residential density there are 4 (four) villages that have a risk, namely Liliba, Oesapa, Oebobo and Manutapen villages. Spatial Pattern of the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis cases based on humidity there are 3 (three) villages at risk, namely Fatubesi, Nefonaek and Oepura villages. Spatial Pattern of the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis cases based on lighting there are 3 (three) villages at risk, namely Oesapa, Oetete and Fatubesi villages. Spatial pattern of the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis cases based on the temperature of the house there are 2 (two) villages at risk, namely Lasiana and Liliba villages. The results of multiple logistic regression analysis showed the effect of BMI on the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis B = 2.769; p value = 0.030; OR = 15.938 (95% CI = 1.300 - = 195.440). Effect of neighbour contact B = 3.073; p value = 0.000; OR = 21.604 (95% CI = 4.230 - 110.325). Effect of habit of covering mouth when coughing B = -1.808; p value = 0.029; OR = 0.164 (95% CI = 0.032 - 0.832). Effect of ventilation area B = -3.824; p value = 0.000; OR = 0.022 (95% CI = 0.005 - 0.095).

Conclusion : The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Kupang city is influenced by BMI, neighbour contact, habit of covering mouth when coughing and house ventilation.

Keywords: Spatial pattern, Neighbourhood, Body Mass Index, Pulmonary Tuberculosis

DOI: 10.7176/PPAR/14-3-08

Publication date: November 30^th 2024