Modelling the Effects of Teacher Demand Factors on Teacher Understaffing in Public Secondary Schools in Kenya

Abstract

The secondary school teacher labour market faces many challenges including, escalating teacher wage bill, teacher shortages that occur alongside teacher surpluses, inadequate teacher distribution and inefficient teacher utilization. There is the need therefore to understand the effects of the factors determining demand for secondary school teachers and determine the incidence of risk on teacher under staffing caused by different demand factors. The study adopted cross-sectional research design using time series data for the period from 1990 to 2010. The dependent and independent variables in this study were subjected to Poison Regression to establish the extent to which the set of independent variables explained variance in the dependent variable. Results of the Poisson Regression showed that the significant factors determining secondary school teacher demand in Kenya included: number teachers on duty, secondary school enrolment, class size and number of teachers employed. There was evidence to prove that Pupil Teacher Ratio (PTR), number of classes, number of streams, teacher workload and Government policy affected secondary school teacher demand collectively although they did not have significant effect of teacher demand independently. The results of the Poisson Regression model with random effect illustrated the Incidence Relative Risk (IRR) on teacher understaffing.  The study concluded that, changing the levels in student enrolment, PTR, number of classes, number of teachers employed and teacher without relevant policy controls and interventions measures would increase the risk of teacher shortage. Thus there is the need for the policy makers to control the effects of secondary school teacher demand factors to avoid critical teacher shortages in the future.

Key Words: Modelling, Teacher demand, public secondary school